LED demand will not see a dark cloud in the next decade

From infrared remote controls to mobile phone displays, from traffic lights to home appliance displays, semiconductor light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are everywhere in our lives. The Center for Industrial Economics and Trends (IEK) data shows that global LEDs in 2006 With a market size of more than $6 billion, the market will maintain a growth rate of more than 10% in 2007 and 2008, reaching $6.85 billion and $7.67 billion, respectively. Moreover, high-brightness LEDs, represented by automobile headlights, notebook monitors and lighting, will replace low-brightness LEDs such as mobile phone displays and home appliances, and become the locomotives that will drive market growth. It is estimated that high-brightness LEDs will increase by 16% in 2007, while the growth of general-brightness LEDs and infrared-light LEDs is only -5% and 1%, respectively. Experts even claim that with the development of LED brightness and related heat dissipation and assembly technology. "In the next decade, LED demand will not see any dark clouds."

Two breakthroughs ignited the high-brightness market

Due to limitations in luminous efficiency, LED commercial products are now mainly mobile phone backlights. In 2006, mobile phone backlights accounted for 33% of the global LED application market. IEK estimated that the market size in 2007 was only 1.76 billion US dollars, which was the same as in previous years. In this regard, Osram Opto product manager Steffen Block said: "If it can be seen as the mobile and communication era of LED lighting from 2003 to 2006, then after that, with the popularity of LEDs in car taillights, notebook computers, LED Technology will enter the power era, and the future of this technology lies in the large-scale use of automotive headlights and lighting." Experts analysis, 2007, 2008 will be a turning point in the development of high-brightness LEDs, with technological breakthroughs With the release of the two bottlenecks of patent expiration, high-brightness LEDs will gradually enter a climax.

In terms of technology, LED white light illumination efficiency has been increased to the applicable range and mass production. In 2003, Lumileds Lighting company Roland Haitz summed up an empirical technical law based on the development history of LEDs since commercialization in 1965. LEDs can double the brightness after every 18 to 24 months, that is, in the future. In the next 10 years, the brightness is expected to increase by a factor of 20, and the cost will be reduced to 1/10 of the existing one. This is called Haitz's law, also known as the Moores Law in the LED industry. According to this inference, a breakthrough LED with a brightness of 100 lm/W (100 lumens per watt) appeared around 2008-2010. The actual situation is more optimistic, including the LED industry leader in June 2006 - Nichia launched a 100lm/W white LED engineering sample; in June 2007, Cree announced a new standard for lighting-grade LED brightness and efficiency. The XLamp LED (100 lm minimum luminous flux at 350 mA) enables mass production, which is ready for the widespread adoption of high-brightness LEDs.

In terms of patents, the LED patents mainly controlled by Japanese, European and American companies began in 2007 and 2008, and the 20-year patent term will gradually expire and will be lifted. In fact, due to the gradual approach of the patent term, in order to avoid disputes in patent technology, leading companies such as Nichia, Toyota Synthetic, Cree, Philips and Osram are mutually authorized to maintain monopoly on the one hand, and BRICs on the other hand. The manufacturer carries out an authorized OEM model of “authorized patents, transfer manufacturing”. And in the case of patent licensing, production opportunities flow to areas such as Taiwan and China where manufacturing costs are lower, and emerging LED manufacturers have also pulled into the technological distance from traditional LED manufacturers.

Market opportunities for high-brightness LEDs are in laptops, cars and lighting

IEK data shows that mobile phone backlight is the main application market for LED at this stage, but with other demand, especially the growth of high-brightness products such as notebook computers, automobiles and lighting, it is expected that the market share of LED in mobile products will gradually shrink.

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