The US investment bank Goldman Sachs recently released a special report to look forward to the development and trends of the automotive industry in 2025. Technology will lead the changes in the automotive industry, but technology will be affected by four key factors, and the upcoming changes in the automotive sector will drive the development of seven key trends.
Cars in 2025 will be completely different from today's cars, and they will reshape the way people travel in the next 10 years.
Four key factors
Environmental protection
Consumers and regulators are concerned that climate change will put tremendous pressure on automakers to cut carbon dioxide emissions. The transportation industry accounts for 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. From 1999 to 2035, CO2 emissions will increase by 1.75 times.
Convenient
More and more urban traffic environments in the world are getting worse. The cost of car ownership continues to rise while the car is idle for 95% of the time. For companies, how to match cars more efficiently with those who need them will create huge business opportunities.
From 2010 to 2025, the global urban population will grow by 50%. The average time that Japanese people waste every year due to traffic jams is up to 30 hours.
Safety
For a long time, reducing traffic accidents has always been a priority agenda for the automotive industry, but as global ageing intensifies, the demand for safe transportation is increasing.
By 2025, 10% of the world's population will be older than 65 years of age. Traffic accidents caused 500,000 deaths worldwide each year and injured 7 million people.
cheap
As global per capita income grows, car ownership rates in developing countries will also rise. These new car consumers prefer to buy small and cheap cars.
It is estimated that by 2025, China's automobile sales will reach 35 million, India will be 7.4 million, and the world will exceed 120 million.
Seven trends
Trend 1: Car power is more efficient
Social concerns about greenhouse gases and pollution, government regulation of fuel combustion efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions are forcing automakers to develop more efficient car engines.
By 2025, 25% of the cars sold will be equipped with electric motors, compared to 5% today. This means that automakers need to develop more efficient internal combustion engines to meet new standards. The development of alternative automotive power sources, such as fuel cells, will also increase overall efficiency.
The Japanese government has set a target price for fuel cell vehicles, which was priced at $18,000 in 2025. Although fuel cell vehicles are still niche products from a global perspective, lower target prices will make them a strong competitor to hybrid vehicles.
Power system comparison:
Internal Combustion Engines: The integration of powertrain technology will increase the fuel combustion efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles, including gasoline direct injection, turbocharging, and high-speed automatic transmissions.
Power Mixing: Power hybrid cars rely on gasoline or diesel engines combined with power to increase fuel combustion efficiency. They use regenerative braking and automotive engines to charge car batteries.
Plug-in hybrids: Plug-in hybrids have longer all-electric range compared to conventional hybrids because they can be charged by internal power. Like hybrid cars, they still retain internal combustion engines.
Electric: Compared to conventional or hybrid vehicles, it is much simpler to rely solely on electric-powered automotive powertrains. Electric vehicle manufacturers are looking to reduce battery costs, which account for half of the cost of electric vehicles.
Fuel cell: This type of car uses hydrogen from the fuel cell to generate electricity. Except for water, they do not emit carbon dioxide when driving.
Goldman Sachs Report: Four Factors and Seven Trends Affecting Cars in 2025
Trend 2: Using new materials
In order to improve efficiency, car manufacturers are looking for lightweight cars. But in accordance with strict automotive safety standards, in fact, as auto companies develop more new materials, such as lighter and stronger aluminum, high-strength steel and carbon fiber reinforced plastics, this contradiction has begun to ease. However, these materials are very expensive, especially carbon fiber materials, which can only be applied to some sports cars.
Over time, fuel combustion efficiency will drive automakers to use more aluminum and high-strength steel to make cars. The new material is lighter and stronger.
But at the same time, the cost is higher: normal steel costs $1 per kilogram, high-strength steel costs $2 per kilogram, aluminum costs $6 per kilogram, and carbon fiber costs $40 per kilogram.
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