Although the delivery period may be as long as one or two years, Tesla Model 3 still sets a miracle in the history of the car: in the first 24 hours, the order reached 180,000 units; in the week, 325,000 orders were seized. Sla delivered six times the total amount of cars last year. An economical car that combines the advantages of autonomous driving and cruising range is praised by the industry as an Apple in the automotive industry. If so, what will be left to the Chinese auto industry?
Apple pioneered the smart phone, and used this to ride the dust, and seized 90% of the industry's profits, leaving the Chinese mobile phone industry with a crowded market and a thriving profit in the Red Sea. Needless to say, in order to remedy the major mistakes made by the Chinese auto industry in the joint venture to introduce technology, the government has urged the new energy enterprises to “over the corner†and spare no effort to support local auto companies to catch up on new energy vehicles.
Huge subsidies, exemption from taxation, and unlimited number of driving, and unprecedented stimulus measures are coming. There are more and more new energy electric vehicles on the road, and pure electric vehicles have appeared in private cars, taxis, express trains, special cars, black cars and service vehicles.
Local car companies live up to expectations. In 2015, new energy vehicles sold 330,000 vehicles and 250,000 pure electric vehicles, making them the world's largest producer and seller of electric vehicles. To this end, the state and local governments have paid more than 30 billion yuan in subsidies. In just one week, the strategy of overtaking in China's new energy auto industry has become pale and weak. A Model 3, such as the ceiling, is in front of the Chinese car company.
This past winter, the first winter when I bought an electric car, I really realized the torture caused by electric vehicles. Sometimes for charging, I had to leave at night, bring a bicycle, leave the electric car at the charging station, go home by bike, and pick up the car the next morning. Those urban residents who had to buy new energy vehicles due to restrictions on purchases experienced a similar pain in my first winter with electric vehicles. Young people who never wore sweaters and pants have been remodeled in the cold. Wearing a gloved scarf and a clumsy coat, squatting in the long wait for charging.
The trouble of electric vehicles is first of all charging. The charging piles are already in short supply. After the surge in electric vehicle sales, the contradiction between supply and demand is more exciting in the winter, and waiting in line for charging is commonplace. Followed by the charging speed, the Jianghuai IEV4 manual clearly stated that "one hour charging 80%, two and a half hours full", in the winter, two and a half hours to fill half is difficult, cold days, fast charging speed as in summer The slow charge took six or seven hours. If a few such slow-loading cars are parked in a charging station, the other vehicles will only return home. The third is the cruising range. The mileage of electric vehicles in winter will be shortened. This is common sense and can be reduced severely, which is still difficult for car owners to accept. The Beiqi EV150, which has a 150-kilometer model, has a car owner report that it can only open 100 kilometers, or when the air conditioner is turned off. In the winter, electricity is saved, and electric vehicle drivers and passengers are frozen together, which has suffered from the development of new energy vehicles in China.
In 2015, the government vigorously promoted and opened the first year of China's new energy, but the negative news has followed. In this year, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by two times year-on-year, but the market for new energy commercial vehicles including logistics and special vehicles increased by about 8 times. Usually, the annual production-to-sale ratio of passenger and commercial vehicles is about 8:2. In the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2015, passenger cars and commercial vehicles are almost flat, and there are only 70,000 vehicles in the first 10 months. Although the new energy vehicles were sold but not on the market, a fraudulent interest chain immediately surfaced.
As early as a hundred years ago, electric vehicles came out. The battery and motor manufacturing process was much simpler than that of the fuel car, but it was shelved because of poor practicality. Today, the subsidy policy formulated by the government does not require specific requirements for manufacturing technology. The subsidies are determined only in terms of battery life, and the subsidies for passenger vehicles are extremely high, up to a million yuan, which gives the scammers a chance. Those so-called new energy car companies, a simple assembly line can produce electric vehicles that meet the subsidy standard, then buy or sell themselves, or simply remove the battery cycle to apply for subsidies. It is estimated that at least 1 billion yuan of the 30 billion yuan subsidies paid by the central and local governments in 2015 were defrauded.
Even without scamming, huge subsidies are enough to make new energy car companies “lie down and make moneyâ€. Taking the subsidy of a pure electric bus of 6 to 8 meters as an example, the manufacturing cost is generally between 450,000 and 500,000 yuan, and the subsidy is as high as 600,000 yuan per vehicle. A car company that does not have the accumulation of electric vehicle technology does not need research and development. It only changes the existing fuel vehicle model, the chassis and the body do not move, and the fuel-powered system is replaced by a motor battery, which has a chance to gain profits.
Specific to the home passenger car, the transformation of the fuel vehicle into pure electric is even more popular. After the “country supplement + land supplement†of 100,000 yuan, such a model can still sell for 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, compared with the fuel car. Not competitive. However, if one considers the invisible bonus of the electric vehicles in the first-tier cities, the electric cars will have a price-performance ratio and will be sold well. An electric vehicle, subsidized 100,000 yuan, tax-free purchase of 20,000 yuan, free of charge and unlimited value of no less than 100,000 yuan, equivalent to the government directly or indirectly to spend more than 200,000 yuan subsidized car enterprises. It is no wonder that after the launch of the 2015 annual report, we saw that many companies stopped or even lost their sales, and profits increased sharply. BYD's profit growth even exceeded 500%. Dongfeng Motor and Jiangling Motors also achieved good profits in the case of negative sales growth.
Behind the sharp losses, the Tesla model deserves to be rethought
Since the subsidies for new energy vehicles are faced with all car companies, companies are also facing competition from rivals. Why can new energy vehicles still earn so much profit from consumers? In 2015, Tesla sold 50,500 vehicles, and the loss reached an unprecedented 889 million US dollars. In the past 6 years, Tesla's losses have intensified, and the loss last year exceeded the sum of the previous five years.
American car companies lose money and Chinese car companies can make a big profit. In fact, it is not difficult to understand that a Tesla Model S 90D is a low-end version. The US price is relative to RMB 600,000 and the Chinese price is RMB 880,000. The difference between the economical and electric vehicles is even more disparate. The Dongfeng Nissan Kaichen and the Nissan Leaf are "twin brothers", but the price is different by more than 10,000 US dollars.
Local protection and tariff protection limit the competition of overseas car companies, but this is not the key to the problem. The superiority of the living environment, domestic car companies to subsidize fertilizer, stop competition, this is the biggest hidden danger of China's electric car "curve overtaking" strategy. Tesla’s sharp increase in losses is actually “a big game with a big gameâ€. In addition to enriching the product line from sports cars to SUVs to family cars, Tesla is still working on autonomous driving. In October 2015, Tes Pull began to release 7.0 firmware, providing autopilot features including autopilot, automatic side parking, and automatic lane change.
Tesla is only spending on technology research and development, and it is more than hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. If it excludes R&D expenditures, Tesla is actually profitable. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, Tesla ranks third in the list of the ten most innovative companies.
According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report, Tesla spent more than 60% of its research and development expenditure on foreign companies. With the launch of Model 3, the more explosive news is that Tesla has decided to set up a site in China, which allows its electric vehicles to reduce import taxes and shipping costs, thereby reducing the final price by three points. One or so.
Model 3 basic US price of 35,000 US dollars, if exported to China, because there is no displacement, so the tax is "specially low", the comprehensive tariff is only 39.5%, plus a certain transportation handling costs, the final price may be It reached 340,000 yuan. This makes it and several domestic high-end electric vehicles, BYD E6 and Tengshi quite, the imported car can not get subsidies, the price has the original advantage. If Model 3 is produced domestically, it is likely to be the same price as the United States. If you are lucky, you can also enjoy a government subsidy of 104,000 yuan. This price will be subversive for Chinese electric vehicles and even traditional car companies.
Tesla's crowdfunding car seems to be Huawei's strategy of pricing in volume production and future technology trends. When it is expected that the technology will bring a huge demand, Tesla will price the large-scale production cost, grab the market at a subversive price, and grasp consumer expectations. Although Chinese automakers have continued to innovate within a year or two, they have launched dozens of new energy brands, but none of them can be so impressive, capture the market, and enter the Red Sea-like competition.
What is even more worrying is that the innovation of domestic car companies in the battery is a detour. The iron-lithium battery is heavy in weight and low in capacity but low in cost. The domestic car companies have put into production under the subsidy policy that only talks about the endurance. A lot of "small horse-drawn cart" models with short battery life and heavy body. The big drawback of iron-lithium batteries is the poor low-temperature performance. In fact, the endurance and charging concerns of new energy owners in winter are also concentrated on the new energy entry vehicles.
When manufacturers realized that the expansion of new energy vehicles started from popular models is not the ideal way, then returning to produce ternary lithium battery models, wasting a good opportunity for industrial upgrading. Tesla's high-end and low-end popularization strategy not only accumulated goodwill, but also formed an overwhelming advantage in production capacity. The real reason why Tesla can reduce the cost of Model 3 to such a low level is that Tesla's heavy-duty Gigafactory is in production.
summary:
Of course, the cornering of China's new energy vehicles will not fall through the Model 3, but they have to admit that the road ahead has become difficult. When the car companies are stupid by the government's "stupid money", shouldn't we reflect on it, at any time, the industrial policy from the government should be cautious and intensive, rather than taking the money to intervene in the industry. Direction, use financial leverage to pull out the future of an industry.
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