According to recent reports, as the demand for lithium batteries is expected to rise sharply in the coming years, many lithium mining companies are rushing to expand their production capacity ahead of the anticipated surge in electric vehicle sales. However, some analysts believe that these efforts may not be sufficient to meet the growing demand from the EV market, which could result in a significant increase in lithium prices.
Analysts have pointed out that certain lithium deposits may take several years to scale up production enough to meet the rising demand. This expansion will require billions of dollars in investment, with part of the funding likely coming from long-term supply contracts. These contracts are becoming increasingly important as companies seek stability in an uncertain market.
Roskill, a leading market research firm, predicts that lithium carbonate demand will jump from 227,000 tons this year to 785,000 tons by 2025. Despite ongoing efforts to boost production, the analysis suggests there will still be a supply gap of about 26,000 tons annually by 2025. This shortage could drive prices even higher.
The increasing demand for electric vehicles has already started to create a bottleneck in the battery supply chain. As more automakers roll out new EV models, the pressure on lithium suppliers continues to grow. This situation is prompting both manufacturers and investors to look for alternative sources and materials to ensure a stable supply.
Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise from the current $9,000 per ton (about 603,000 yuan) to $13,000 per ton (about 872,000 yuan). Lithium hydroxide, another key material used in battery production, is also seeing a price increase, moving from $9,000 to $13,000 per ton. This compound is known for its higher energy density and longer lifespan, making it a preferred choice for next-generation batteries.
The decline in battery costs has helped boost sales of models like the Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla Model 3, enabling automakers to achieve profitability in the $30,000 to $40,000 price range. Tesla, for example, has secured long-term supply agreements with lithium providers to support its Gigafactory operations. However, the company has yet to disclose how long these agreements can sustain if supply chain disruptions or shortages occur.
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