In March of this year, Shenzhen City announced the abolition of the LED industry planning policy, which was interpreted by the outside world as avoiding the emergence of the second "photovoltaic industry."
However, industry experts believe that the LED industry has huge room for growth and it is impossible to become a second PV. The reason is that LEDs are consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that it is widely used and the market is extremely broad.
According to authoritative forecasts, the global lighting market will exceed $150 billion by 2020, an increase of 11.9% from $134 billion in 2010. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, the LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars. That is to say, 10 times expansion in 10 years.
According to the reporter's understanding of the front line, this year, LED backlight and lighting market demand is strong, chip, packaging and application manufacturers orders are full.
Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that the LED outbreak will start in the fourth quarter of this year, and then it will usher in a seven to eight-year boom.
In addition, according to relevant data, the current global LED lighting penetration rate is only 10%, and by 2015 or at the latest 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat-dissipating materials, the application breadth of LED products, especially lighting products, has been limited for a long time. According to relevant data, at the beginning of 2013, the cost of LED lighting purchase was 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming functions.
LED dealers said that a major factor hindering the large-scale application of LED lighting products is the price. Once the cost of LED lamps is greatly reduced, it will inevitably accelerate the popularization of LED lighting products.
According to the reporter, LED lighting can save a lot of space. For example, future chips are expected to continue to drop by 20%, and heat-dissipating aluminum can save 30%.
The quote from the merchant confirms this. According to the data of Jingdong Mall in May 2013, the price of a lighting product of 800 lumens (equivalent to 60w incandescent brightness) is only 50 yuan, equivalent to 10 dollars / thousand lumens. If the export tax rebate factor is taken into account, the export price is about $9/thousand lumens. This is already possible with the energy-saving lamps with dimming function.
A securities analyst predicts that LED light sources will fall to $15/thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and some Asian-Pacific lighting manufacturers' light source prices may drop to $8/thousand lumens. After about two to three years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to a critical replacement point ($5) for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He concluded that the LED lighting market may break out in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year.
Although the LED industry has shown a "blowout" trend in recent years, Chinese companies are quite scarce in core technologies and patents, restricting the long-term development of the entire LED industry. Even some core chips of small and medium-sized enterprises rely on foreign imports. As the scale of the industry continues to expand, the issue of technology patents will become the lifeblood of controlling the development of enterprises.
Faced with such a broad market, Chinese enterprises should not only focus on "scale expansion," but should "cultivate internal strength" and master core technologies in order to occupy a larger market share.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
However, industry experts believe that the LED industry has huge room for growth and it is impossible to become a second PV. The reason is that LEDs are consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that it is widely used and the market is extremely broad.
According to authoritative forecasts, the global lighting market will exceed $150 billion by 2020, an increase of 11.9% from $134 billion in 2010. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, the LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars. That is to say, 10 times expansion in 10 years.
According to the reporter's understanding of the front line, this year, LED backlight and lighting market demand is strong, chip, packaging and application manufacturers orders are full.
Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that the LED outbreak will start in the fourth quarter of this year, and then it will usher in a seven to eight-year boom.
In addition, according to relevant data, the current global LED lighting penetration rate is only 10%, and by 2015 or at the latest 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat-dissipating materials, the application breadth of LED products, especially lighting products, has been limited for a long time. According to relevant data, at the beginning of 2013, the cost of LED lighting purchase was 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming functions.
LED dealers said that a major factor hindering the large-scale application of LED lighting products is the price. Once the cost of LED lamps is greatly reduced, it will inevitably accelerate the popularization of LED lighting products.
According to the reporter, LED lighting can save a lot of space. For example, future chips are expected to continue to drop by 20%, and heat-dissipating aluminum can save 30%.
The quote from the merchant confirms this. According to the data of Jingdong Mall in May 2013, the price of a lighting product of 800 lumens (equivalent to 60w incandescent brightness) is only 50 yuan, equivalent to 10 dollars / thousand lumens. If the export tax rebate factor is taken into account, the export price is about $9/thousand lumens. This is already possible with the energy-saving lamps with dimming function.
A securities analyst predicts that LED light sources will fall to $15/thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and some Asian-Pacific lighting manufacturers' light source prices may drop to $8/thousand lumens. After about two to three years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to a critical replacement point ($5) for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He concluded that the LED lighting market may break out in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year.
Although the LED industry has shown a "blowout" trend in recent years, Chinese companies are quite scarce in core technologies and patents, restricting the long-term development of the entire LED industry. Even some core chips of small and medium-sized enterprises rely on foreign imports. As the scale of the industry continues to expand, the issue of technology patents will become the lifeblood of controlling the development of enterprises.
Faced with such a broad market, Chinese enterprises should not only focus on "scale expansion," but should "cultivate internal strength" and master core technologies in order to occupy a larger market share.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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