Has the PV industry improved in 2013?

At the beginning of 2013, a series of favorable factors had made the performance of China's PV companies strong. However, some analysts recently pointed out that China's future electricity price subsidy policy is weaker than expected; not only distributed photovoltaic subsidy quota is set at 0.35 yuan per degree, which is lower than the previous expectation; the on-grid electricity price of large ground station will also be 1 yuan per degree from the previous Downgraded to 0.75 yuan per degree. This makes the market generally worried that the investment return rate of domestic photovoltaic power plants will be reduced, which will lead to a significant delay in the construction of power plants.

The solar energy index of the US stocks on the 13th of May fell 5.97% to 176.73 points, and most of the constituent stocks fell. Among them, Suntech Power (STP.NYSE) tumbled 23.85% to 0.83 U.S. dollars; LDK Solar Energy (LDK.NYSE) fell 12.03% to 1.39 U.S. dollars; Shin Hui Sunshine (SOL.NYSE) fell 5.31% to 2.41 U.S. dollars; Solar Energy (JASO.NASDAQ) fell 4.21% to $4.55; Yingli Green Energy (YGE.NYSE) fell 3.38% to $2.29.

Expected high lead to stock price correction

Some market participants believe that the over-optimism of the PV industry at the beginning of the year was the root cause of the stock price correction of photovoltaic shares in this round. In 2010, the photovoltaic industry had a good momentum of development, but it was its high profit margins, high returns, and low barriers to entry that led to rapid expansion of production capacity, oversupply, and a sluggish world economy. The growth rate slowed down, and the industry fell into an all-time low from 2011 onwards. .

Since the beginning of this year, Buffett has made major purchases of US solar energy projects on overseas markets, and the price of polysilicon has steadily increased. On the domestic front, the market’s expectation that the country will give more support to the new energy industry will increase, making the industry “inside the wall” and “outside the wall”. There are more than Xiangxi.

At the beginning of this year, several shares of China LDK Solar, including LDK Solar, which had been listed in the United States, had made gains of more than 40% for several consecutive trading days. The shares of solar-related companies in the United States, Germany, Switzerland, and South Korea have also been singing all the way.

Analysts expect that the entire photovoltaic industry will remain in a period of adjustment this year, and it is difficult to see a fundamental turn for the better. The acquisition of Warren Buffett was only a case in the beginning of the year, and more of it only gave the market some confidence; the country's support policy is currently more in the macro-planning stage, and the lack of specific measures was introduced. Before the entire photovoltaic industry got out of the sluggish market, it was judged as fashionable. As early as possible, from the perspective of stock prices, the correction of related stocks was expected. At present, the integration of the industry does not end and it will take some time.

PV industry may improve next year

Zhang Jian, CEO of Comtec Solar, pointed out that the best choice for the photovoltaic industry now is to eliminate backward production capacity as soon as possible through market competition, so that the market can balance supply and demand and develop soundly. It is expected that by 2014, the entire photovoltaic industry will probably usher in a fundamental improvement. Some underperforming companies will actively or passively withdraw from the industry, and some well-established enterprises will continue to grow bigger and stronger.

The foreign PV-related companies have not been adversely affected by the tumble in the current round of speculative stocks. On the contrary, it is precisely because of the current series of technical and institutional obstacles in the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry that the competitiveness is still far inferior to that of foreign companies. , Foreign PV industry may usher in a greater "business opportunity" in the global market.

The "smoothness" of foreign PV companies is directly reflected in the stock price. According to incomplete statistics by the China Securities Journal, most foreign-related companies still have significant price increases so far this year, and there has been no significant downward volatility recently.

This year, the share price of California Solar Power (SPWR) soared 117.08%, Centrotherm Photovoltaic (CTN) in Germany rose 46.4%, Meyer Burger Technology (MBTN) in Switzerland rose by 17.9%, and the share price of Nexolon (110570) in South Korea rose 18.22%. .