Turnaround in the air-conditioning market turns to a superior external environment

According to last year's major domestic air-conditioning companies' marketing rhythm for the 2012 refrigerated year, it is only one month away from the end of the 2012 freezing year. The author has a sales data on the leading brands of home air-conditioning products in the first half of the year. A slight attention to the domestic sales market in the past six months will reveal that sales figures are very ugly compared to the same period of last year. It is almost impossible to reverse the overall market size of a year through one month, so the total sales volume of the 2012 frozen domestic sales market in the year may already be decisive.

Although the 2012 refrigerated year saw its first decline in nearly three years, and the rate of decline was the highest in the past decade, there are more and more positive factors from the current external environment of the air-conditioning industry. Factors have brought substantial production and sales opportunities to the industry, and the domestic air-conditioning market is expected to emerge from the declining momentum in 2012 in the 2013 freezing year.

Liquidity release at the macro level alleviates business pressure

After entering 2012, the national economy has shifted its policy direction at the macro level. On June 8, 2012, the central bank decided to cut the deposit and loan interest rate of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, which is commonly known as interest rate cuts. The previous rate cut was traced back to Three and a half years ago. On May 18, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5% again. This is the second time since the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio since 2012. It was only three months before the first official cut of the deposit reserve ratio on February 24.

This round of adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio began in November 2011, when the central bank announced the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, was regarded by the market as a signal of fine-tuning monetary policy, coupled with the reduction, the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve three times The gold rate was reduced by 1.5 percentage points. Earlier the deposit reserve ratio reduction also goes back to September 2008. Moreover, a recent rumors that the deposit reserve ratio in July will be lowered again.

The deposit reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates have been adjusted downwards to release a large amount of liquidity. Whether it is an industrial production enterprise or a commercial circulation enterprise, the chance of obtaining financial support from financial institutions has increased substantially, and the corresponding financial financing costs have also been reduced. As a result, business pressure has been alleviated.

At the same time, the trend of PPI is also conducive to the survival and development of industrial enterprises. According to publicly available data, in May 2012, the national producer prices of industrial producers fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month. From January to May, the average producer price of industrial producers decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The continuous decline in the price of fuel in the recent period also eased the logistics costs of living companies.

Although the growth rate of GDP this year has been reduced compared to previous years, domestic demand is the strategic direction of national economic development. The opportunities in the domestic market are still very broad. In addition, under the unfavorable pattern that Europe is still plagued by the debt crisis, the development of the export market is also very impressive. According to customs statistics, from January to May, China’s total value of imports and exports was US$151.08 billion, an increase of 7.7% over the same period of last year. In May, China’s total value of imports and exports increased by 14.1%. The single month’s growth in exports, imports, and imports and exports reached double digits, which was the first time this year.

Industrial policy will enhance confidence in business development

The release of liquidity at the macro level has provided environmental support for the introduction of favorable policies within the sub-industry. This is also the macro background for the introduction of the new policy of saving energy and benefiting the people at the end of May. The promulgation of the new policy of saving energy and benefiting the people has provided the air-conditioning market in a downturn. Policy thrust.

The re-implementation of the subsidy policy for saving energy and benefiting the people, no matter if it is the point of time or the intensity of subsidy and the product range of subsidy, it is beyond the expectation of many companies. On the one hand, the amount of subsidies is relatively large. Last year, the maximum amount of subsidies before the suspension of energy-saving projects was only 150 yuan. This year, the maximum amount of energy-saving Huimin subsidies reached 400 yuan. In addition, inverter air conditioners and fixed speeds It is the first time that air-conditioners enjoy Huimin subsidy in the history of the development of China's air-conditioning industry. This subsidized product structure takes care of the technical scene of most air-conditioning companies and is conducive to the overall development of the industry. Especially for enterprises that have deep technical accumulation in inverter air conditioners and high energy-constant speed products, there is a more obvious competitive advantage in the acquisition of policy resources.

Judging from the current state of implementation of the energy-saving and livelihood policies, although the overall sales market does not have a clear driving effect on the sales, and because the implementation of the policy coincides with the alternating period of the two years, the Huimin products provide market demand for air-conditioning companies in the short term. The input will not be too large. However, the introduction of the New Energy-saving and People-to-People Policy, in addition to providing external policy thrusts for the development of enterprises, more importantly, is to provide enterprises with a clear direction for product development and market operations, among factories and distributors. The development of confidence in the short term has thus been clearly restored.

After the implementation of the energy-saving Huimin New Deal, almost all air-conditioning products can obtain policy dividends. Home appliances to the countryside mainly covers three levels of constant speed and frequency conversion products, while the fixed-speed one-level two and frequency conversion first and second-level energy efficiency products all comply with the Huimin subsidy policy requirements.

Relevance of related industrial markets provides staged new demands for air-conditioning products

The industry with the highest degree of correlation with air-conditioning products is real estate. According to open reports, in the past few months, the domestic real estate market has finally shown a regrettable re-growth momentum after experiencing previous shocks. The price of real estate is also rising steadily, which provides considerable new demands for the development of the air-conditioning industry in the near to short term.

Although the regulation of the real estate market has not relaxed, rigid housing demand will support the scale development of the domestic real estate market. This will also be one of the cornerstones for the development of domestic first and second level air conditioners.

In addition to the obvious external factors of real estate, the demand for air-conditioning products during the peak season will have a direct impact. Some time ago, the reason why the retail sales of the domestic air-conditioning market was sluggish, apart from the market itself, the low temperature, especially the low night temperatures, had a significant effect on the demand for air-conditioning. Moreover, floods in Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, and Fujian have also brought negative effects on the air-conditioning market.

With the forthcoming plummeting of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the high-temperature, sweltering climate is also approaching, which will actually stimulate the expansion of demand for air-conditioning products. Since this year is April, the rising temperature lags behind the same period in previous years. Therefore, the weather conditions in July and August may bring positive benefits to the air-conditioning market.

In 2012, there was a phenomenon that had not existed in the past three years, which fully demonstrated that there are sufficient development opportunities in the domestic air-conditioning market. This phenomenon is the entry of many new brands into the air-conditioning industry. In addition to the previously reported Soi Air-conditioner, Putian Air-conditioner, and Shanshui Air-conditioner, it is rumored recently that the company will also become a domestic air-conditioning industry through brand leasing. One of the newcomers, such as Ditaier, Sino-Korea, and Feilong Home Appliances Group have also won the bid for the air-conditioning project for energy-saving and people-friendly policies.

It is indeed a process that the domestic air-conditioning market wants to get out of the current difficulties. With the gradual reflection of the above-mentioned favorable factors on the market stimulus, this process may be shortened. However, it is difficult for the domestic market to replicate 2010 and 2011. The high growth rate of the market may be more secure by changing the competitive thinking.

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