Ye Guoguang: Analysis of the four major forces in the global LED industry

[Source: LED Engineering's "LED Research Review" magazine May issue of text / Ye Guoguang] big shortage era in 2010, LED prices are abnormally high; the market came to a standstill in 2011; in 2012 the industry into the big low tide, LED like a roller coaster In the same way, there is no way to predict the direction.

At present, the LED industry presents a pattern of melee, especially in the Chinese mainland LED industry, which feels a bit like the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. As for the Taiwan region, as the industry has been monopolized by Jingdian and Yiguang, it has become more and more unified. Overseas has formed a three-point world of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea.

1. Mainland China

At present, mainland China can only use ant soldiers to describe, at least 10,000 companies operate or sell LEDs, most of them are small and medium enterprises, but there are also several big players growing.

Upstream Sanan, midstream Mulinsen, these two will be the pillars of the future mainland LED industry, they have the opportunity to enter the ranks of the world's top ten LED giants in the future.

There are also Dehao Runda that tries to integrate vertically, but there is a big risk as Sanan, because the current performance growth is the biggest boost from government subsidies.

The upstream layout is too large, and there will be a risk of overcapacity in the future, especially technological advances. In the near future, there is a big progress in brightness and high current light decay. The smaller the chip is, the higher the current density is.

It is conceivable that although downstream demand has increased, the demand for epitaxial wafers does not necessarily increase. If the government subsidies are reduced, the upstream demand is not up, and if the overseas estuary is limited, the risk is no less than the current photovoltaic industry.

2. Taiwan and overseas regions of China

At present, the three major forces and the top ten players are in a row, and strive for the future LED lighting. Who can win, the analysis is as follows:

The first major force - Europe and the United States: the three major players are Philips, Osram and Cree, all of which are international companies with their own brands, all of which are vertically integrated and have their own original patents.

Philips' flip-chip technology, OSRAM's thin-film GaN technology and Cree's silicon carbide inverted trapezoidal vertical structure technology are self-contained. Their layout is deep and wide. In the future, they will focus on brands and use original patents to attack their potential opponents. They will at least divide the next 30% of the lighting market, especially the high-end lighting market. In the future, Chinese mainland enterprises will definitely be blocked by this force if they want to go out of the world.

The second largest force - Japan and South Korea: Japan's two major players are represented by Nichia and Toyota, and the three major players in Korea are represented by Samsung, LG and Seoul Semiconductor.

These are all aimed at vertical integration, especially for Korean companies that have launched their own brands. Due to the large seaport, the strength of the Korean LED industry has surpassed that of Taiwan in China, and the soaring speed is so fast that competitors in the surrounding areas cannot imagine.

In particular, they dare to go out of the world, search for a large number of original patents of famous universities and research institutions in Japan, Europe and the United States, and use the geographical advantage to dig a large number of top LED talents in Japan.

If this situation develops, Korean LEDs will have a great influence in the future.

Due to the nationality of the Japanese, Japanese LED companies are more conservative. The two representative LED companies only integrate the upstream chips into the packaging chain, and the LED applications and finished products are handed over to the top five Japanese electrical appliance manufacturers (Panasonic, Toshiba, Sharp, Hitachi, Fujitsu) layout channel. So, in Japan, you can't see the products that Nichia and Toyota synthesize, you can only see Nichia or Cree inside LED lighting products.

At present, Japan can only stick to the local market, and overseas can only use original patents to sell packaged components.

The third largest force - Taiwan, China: represented by the two players of Jingyuan and Yiguang, Jingyuan focuses on chip manufacturing and cooperation with downstream; Yiguang focuses on packaging, Yiguang holds crystal power, holds Taigu, in There is also a layout upstream.

At present, Yiguang is also launching its own lighting brand. It has spent a considerable amount of money to find a series of advertisements for Taiwanese writer Wu Nianzhen. It is broadcast in popular time, and the effect has not yet appeared. However, their channel has already achieved 7-11 convenience stores. It can be seen that this billion-light is a big decision to make a brand, but it is limited to Taiwan.

Ronda, which has covered the entire industrial chain, is still afraid to launch its own brand, so its scale and market influence are not comparable to those of overseas companies. However, its scale has continued to grow under the M&A strategy, and it has a tendency to rise to the top. . LED companies in Taiwan are still groping for vertical division or vertical integration, and even hesitating for brands. Therefore, if Taiwanese companies cannot quickly find a suitable path for themselves in the future, they will probably be marginalized. This is the biggest worry for the LED industry in Taiwan.

In short, I believe that cooperation between China and Taiwan is the best weapon for the Chinese to break through the international blockade.

At present, the patents of Jingyuan Optoelectronics have been able to pass through the world except Japan, and several application manufacturers in the mainland have also begun to try to go out. All kinds of signs show that the current LED industry in the two places is actually a bit like the current international situation, LED is also this pattern. If the two places do not cooperate, they will certainly be broken by other countries and regions.

In fact, at this time, the two sides have carried out complementary cooperation and can achieve the effect of 1+1>2. If the best time to cooperate is missed, it will form a situation in which the two industries will be killed in the Red Sea. I am afraid that the "outsiders" will have to look at the jokes.

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