According to the latest forecast from global technology research and consulting company Gartner, total global semiconductor revenue in 2013 is expected to reach US $ 311 billion, an increase of 4.5% compared to 2012. Due to the weak economy and inventory adjustment factors, Gartner lowered its forecast for semiconductor revenues of US $ 330 billion in 2013 in the third quarter.
Analysts also lowered their 2012 semiconductor revenue estimates to $ 298 billion, down 3% from 2011. In the third quarter of this year, Gartner had expected 2012 revenue to reach US $ 309 billion, a slight increase of 0.6% from last year.
Gartner Chief Analyst Peter Middleton said: "The imminent fiscal cliff, the continuing European debt crisis, slowing emerging market growth, and regional tensions have all reduced our growth forecasts for semiconductor revenues in 2012 and 2013. Since 2012 Beginning in the second half of the year, semiconductor inventory levels have peaked, mainly due to lower demand for personal computers and oversupply in the market. "
The semiconductor market weakened further in 2012 due to the failure of DRAM prices to recover. Gartner predicts that the DRAM market will not recover until the second half of 2013 when the slowing supply growth is expected to allow the market to enter a stage of short supply. This will be a turning point in the semiconductor industry. The memory market is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of 15.3%. Total semiconductor revenue in 2014 is expected to increase by 9.9% over 2013 to reach US $ 334 billion.
The "Apple Effect" is expected to continue to ferment in 2013, and is expected to drive NAND industry and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) revenue, with growth rates reaching 17.2% and 9.4%, respectively. Gartner lists Apple's A4, A5, and A6 application processors in the ASIC category, because it is a custom processor designed and used exclusively by Apple. ASIC will also benefit from a new generation of video game consoles that will be available from the end of 2012 to 2013.
Personal computer output is expected to fall by 2.5% in 2012. Total PC output in 2013 is expected to continue to be weak, however, Ultra-MobilePC (UMPC) will show strong growth in a few regions. The poor economic environment will not only allow users to extend the use time of their personal computers when they use tablets, but also extend the life cycle of personal computers.
The overall growth rate of mobile phone production in 2012 and 2013 is expected to show a slowing trend, mainly due to the short-term decline in mobile phone demand due to the economic downturn. However, the output of basic smartphones has gradually increased, mainly due to the trend of consumers switching from traditional phones to smartphones. Of particular note is that the adoption rate of entry-level Android phones in emerging markets continues to accelerate and will become the main driver of growth.
The growth rate of global smartphone production in 2013 is expected to reach 33%. In addition, Gartner also raised its original forecast for the output of tablet PCs in the third quarter of 2013 from 169.8 million to 207.1 million, an annual increase of 38.5%. The successful sales of AmazonKindleFire, GoogleNexus 7, and Apple iPad Mini mean that small-size tablets with competitive prices have a lot of business opportunities, and the performance of the white-label tablet market is better than market expectations, which has raised the overall production forecast.
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