LED lighting must wait five years

Step into the home market at a pace like cattle

In 2011, although LED was dubbed the “Four Major Mishaps”, the government’s policy of disabling incandescent lamps will begin to ferment in 2012. More than two-thirds of the world’s regions have begun to disable incandescent or high-wattage incandescent lighting. Takuya believes that the post-incandescence period has come, the importance of LED in lighting applications has been highlighted, the next four years for the LED lighting market, the final critical period. In the application market, priority will be given to outdoor lighting, commercial lighting, industrial lighting, and automotive lighting. Finally, it will infiltrate into the home market.

Taiwan's LED lighting manufacturers have invested heavily in advertising marketing budgets since June 2011, directly educating consumers, raising product awareness, and indirectly increasing the amount of sales in the market, growing at a rate of 35% to 50% per month. Lighting output value accounted for the proportion of product portfolio of Taiwan factory epitaxy and packaging plants, and also grew from less than 10% at the beginning of 2011 to an average of 25% in 2012 Q1. Due to the high color rendering and high plasticity of LED light sources, the penetration rate of outdoor architectural lighting and outdoor display screens has reached 90%. Benefit from the subsidy of streetlights, LED outdoor lighting will also grow faster than other types. illumination. On the other hand, high prices, insufficient brightness and other factors are the biggest obstacles to the LED home lighting market. It takes about 8-10 years to reach 50% market penetration. It is estimated that LED home lighting will not enter the market maturity until 2016.

The replacement cycle is too long to grow

If we analyze the global LED lighting market growth trend from the global population growth, power supply demand, energy-saving trends in three aspects, Tuo pointed out that Asia will become the region with the largest growth in LED lighting demand. Taking the Japanese market as an example, the 311 earthquake caused a power shortage crisis, which made the Japanese LED lighting market mature before 2014. In addition, countries in Central and South America including Mexico, Cuba, Brazil and Venezuela have banned incandescent lamps. The lack of power supply also raises the demand for energy-saving lighting products. In addition, LED lighting products are expected to be the future layout of LED lighting manufacturers due to their lower specification requirements. One of the main areas.

However, the global LED lighting market will face a two-stage development bottleneck before it reaches the mature stage in 2016. First of all, due to factors such as high prices and insufficient awareness of the market, it is difficult for the market penetration rate to break through the 20% bottleneck. Once it crosses the threshold, it will enter a period of rapid growth. Secondly, under the influence of LED products with a service life of up to 20,000 hours, and only about eight to ten years before they need to be replaced, when the market penetration rate grows to 40%, it may again face a long replacement cycle, making demand weak. Stalled into a stagnant state of growth.

In the long term, LED lighting products have gradually started to disable incandescent lighting policies in the global government. In addition, LED lighting in new houses will be built in the future, rural lighting needs in emerging markets such as mainland China, and the pace of urbanization will accelerate the development of LED advertising light boxes. Driven by many factors, the advent of LED lighting era is just around the corner!